Solar Power Could Drive 25 Percent of Electricity Generation by 2050

Solar power could generate up to 25 percent of global electricity by 2050, according to the latest figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France). Based on two new roadmaps covering solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP), the IEA believes that the two forms of solar power could generate up to 9,000 terawatt-hours of power by 2050. The roadmaps were launched at the Mediterranean Solar Plan Conference in Valencia, Spain.

"It is particularly appropriate to present the two solar roadmaps in Valencia today, given that Spain has taken a leading role globally in promoting solar power and other forms of renewable energy," said the executive director of the IEA, Nobuo Tanaka. "The combination of solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security while reducing energy-related CO2 emissions by almost six billion tons per year by 2050."

The IEA said that PV and CSP technologies will deploy in different, but complementary, ways. PV will be used mostly for on-grid, distributed generation in many regions. CSP will largely provide dispatchable electricity on a utility-scale from regions with bright sun and clear skies. PV will also help provide energy access in rural areas that are off of the power grid.

Tanaka explained: "Solar PV and CSP appear to be complementary more than competing. The firm capacity and flexibility of CSP plants will help grid operators integrate larger amounts of variable renewable electricity such as solar PV and wind power. PV will expand under a broader range of climate conditions and bring clean, renewable electricity directly to end-users."

The IEA said that PV on residential and commercial buildings will achieve grid parity with electricity grid retail prices by 2020 in many regions. PV will become competitive at utility-scale in the sunniest regions by 2030 and provide five percent of global electricity. However, as PV matures into a mainstream technology, grid integration and management, as well as energy-storage issues, will need be addressed. The IEA warned that grid operators and utilities will need to develop new technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible, efficient smart grids. By 2050, PV could provide more than 11 percent of global electricity, the IEA said.

CSP, on the other hand, will become competitive for peak and mid-peak loads by 2020 in the sunniest places, but only if "appropriate policies are adopted." Thanks to thermal storage, CSP can produce electricity around the clock and will become competitive with base-load power by 2025 to 2030. North America will be the largest producer of CSP electricity, followed by North Africa and India.

The IEA believes that North Africa will export about half of its production to Europe, the second-largest consumer. The overall contribution of CSP could, like PV, represent 11 percent or more of the global electricity demand by 2050. The most ambitious solar project in the world right now is the Desertec initiative, which aims to build massive solar thermal power plants across the North African desert and transport the electricity to Europe, where it will eventually supply up to 15 percent of the total power demand. The overall project will cost a staggering ?400 billion ($502 billion) and will cover 6,000 sq km.

There are some challenges that must be overcome, according to the IEA. There needs to be more development of dedicated transmission lines that will bring CSP electricity to a greater number of large consumption centers, the IEA said. Some of them will have to be developed in large countries such as China, India and the U.S. Others will cross borders, and many will be needed to link the southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

"This decade is crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity," Tanaka stressed. "Long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times."

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